Turkey is being discussed as a Plan B destination for investors seeking real assets, citizenship by investment, and potential tax advantages on foreign income. The main themes are the Turkish citizenship-by-investment program, changes to foreign-income taxation, the real estate market, and practical considerations for buyers.
Turkey’s New Foreign-Income Tax Incentive
Turkey has announced and passed a law aimed at foreigners moving to the country who have not been Turkish tax residents for the previous three years.
Under the measure, income earned outside Turkey may be tax-free for 20 years. The transcript describes this as applying to income from international businesses or other non-Turkish sources.
Some details remain unclear, including whether the law has been fully published in the Gazette with all regulations.
The measure is presented as a possible attempt to compete with Dubai and attract higher-net-worth residents who may be interested in living in Turkey rather than only obtaining citizenship.
Turkish Citizenship by Investment Through Real Estate
Turkey’s citizenship-by-investment program remains focused on real estate. The current investment threshold discussed in the transcript is $400,000.
The program previously had a lower threshold of $250,000, which was described as too low and broad. The $400,000 level is presented as a more balanced threshold.
There is also market speculation that the threshold could rise again. The latest figure mentioned in the transcript is a possible move to $500,000, while earlier rumors suggested $600,000. No confirmed change is stated.
A key advantage of the Turkish program is that applicants can select their own qualifying real estate. The transcript describes processing as possible in about nine months.
Qualifying property can include different types of real estate, including residential and commercial property. Land alone does not qualify unless the title deed is tied to a structure rather than only the land.
Applicants may also buy multiple properties to reach the threshold. However, this can create competition with local buyers in lower-priced property segments. A single higher-value property requirement is discussed as a potentially better model, because it would reduce pressure on entry-level housing.
Who Is Applying
The client base for Turkish citizenship by investment was described as more diverse in the early years of the program.
More recently, there has been stronger demand from:
- Russians.
- Ukrainians.
- Iranians.
- Middle Eastern applicants.
- Chinese applicants.
- Indian applicants.
Demand from Europe and the United States is described as steady but smaller.
Russians and Ukrainians are described as especially motivated because of banking and travel restrictions.
Turkey is described as attractive to some applicants because it is a large, strategically located country with a real economy, industry, agriculture, a major military role within NATO, and a deeper state structure than small-island citizenship programs.
Real Estate Strategy and Exit Timing
Some citizenship-by-investment buyers entered projects near Istanbul around two years ago. One example discussed is a bulk purchase in Kocaeli, just outside Istanbul, where buyers were able to negotiate a stronger deal with the developer by purchasing as a group.
The strategy in that case was to buy new-build property at a price below what it would cost to reproduce, given rising construction costs.
That opportunity is described as no longer available in the same way. The expected strategy for some investors is to sell around the three-year mark, after the citizenship holding period, if market conditions support a profitable exit.
The transcript suggests there may still be 20% to 30% more upside in that specific investment if interest rates fall, but it also notes that current rates make selling slower.
Turkish Real Estate Market Conditions
The Turkish real estate market is described as much less leveraged than the U.S. market.
Key features mentioned include:
- Banks are conservative.
- Loan-to-value ratios above 70% are unusual.
- Buyers often have significant cash in their properties.
- High interest rates make mortgage payments difficult.
- Owners are less likely to panic-sell compared with highly leveraged markets.
Current interest rates are described as around 30%, which makes it harder to sell quickly. If rates fall to 12% to 15%, buying activity is expected to increase significantly. If rates fall toward 10%, the transcript expects a major wave of buyers.
Sales from January to May were described as down 13.9% compared with the same period the previous year.
Despite a slow market over the last 24 months, prices are described as only around 10% to 15% below the highs of 2023 or early 2024, rather than having crashed.
Inflation remains a major issue, and its connection to interest rates continues to weigh on the market.
Buyer Opportunity
The current slower market may create better negotiation conditions for buyers. Sellers may be more open to offers, and buyers can take more time negotiating instead of being forced to move quickly.
The transcript suggests that each month of high interest rates adds more would-be buyers waiting on the sidelines. When mortgage conditions improve, this accumulated demand could return to the market.
This is why the current period is described as potentially a good buying window, particularly for investors who can negotiate carefully and wait for the next cycle.
Valuation Report Risk
Valuation reports are important for Turkish citizenship-by-investment purchases.
The transcript notes that there was an unusual period when several valuation reports came in below the required level within one or two weeks. This was described as abnormal, because normally only about one report per year comes in under the mark.
Contracts can include a clause allowing the buyer to exit without penalty if the valuation comes in more than a specified percentage below the required level.
The issue appears to have normalized in the past month, according to the transcript, including one case where a property was reportedly valued 40% above expectations.
Lifestyle in Turkey
Turkey is described as a country with strong lifestyle appeal, especially for those who value safety, food, climate, culture, and daily social interaction.
Izmir is described as feeling very safe, with low concern about theft in everyday situations such as leaving a wallet or phone on a table.
Istanbul is described as a major, attractive city, but less suitable for someone seeking a more outdoors-oriented lifestyle. Izmir is presented as a better fit for that type of living.
Turkey is also described as diverse in geography and lifestyle, with beach access for much of the year and multiple regional options depending on the buyer’s priorities.
Practical Considerations
Turkey is not presented as a perfect country. The main criticisms mentioned include:
- Inflation.
- Political concerns.
- Market uncertainty.
- High interest rates.
- Possible future changes to the citizenship-by-investment program.
The transcript frames the decision as comparative rather than absolute. Investors should evaluate Turkey against their current country and against their own Plan B criteria.
For some investors, Turkey may be appealing because it offers:
- A real estate-backed citizenship route.
- A large and strategically important country.
- A potentially favorable foreign-income tax regime for new residents.
- A major urban and coastal lifestyle market.
- A citizenship process that can be completed in months rather than years.
- The ability to choose qualifying real estate rather than being limited to pre-approved projects.
The main caveat is that investors need to choose property carefully, understand liquidity timing, consider inflation and interest rates, and avoid relying only on the passport outcome without assessing the real estate asset itself.
