Panama’s capital‑based residence permits have slipped sharply in the first half of 2026, with total approvals projected to fall to roughly 3,100 for the year—down 41 % from 2025 and 46 % below the 2024 record of 5,776.
Overall approval volume
- Total main‑applicant approvals (H1 2026): 1,546 → annualized 3,092
- Comparison: 41 % lower than 2025; 46 % below the 2024 peak.
The five categories reported by the Servicio Nacional de Migración are:
- Friendly Nations Visa (FNV)
- Jubilados y Pensionados (independent means)
- Qualified Investor Visa (QIV)
- Solvencia propia – fixed‑deposit
- Solvencia propia – real‑estate
Smaller investor routes are omitted when their volume falls below the reporting threshold.
Friendly Nations Visa
- H1 approvals: 1,011 → annualized 2,022.
- Weakest recorded year: 2020 (2,007 approvals).
- Potential outcomes:
- ≤ 1,109 approvals in H2 would make 2026 the lowest FNV total since 2015.
- ≥ 1,109 approvals would place the year third‑from‑bottom, just above 2023.
- Year‑on‑year change: 26 % below 2025, marking a second consecutive decline after a 2024 rebound to 3,228 (driven by a rush to file before the minimum investment rose from US $5,000 to US $200,000).
- Approval rate: 96 % of files in H1.
Jubilados y Pensionados (independent means)
- H1 approvals: 347 → projected 694 for the year (64 % drop, weakest total since 2021).
- Historical trend: Grew each year from 2021 (625) to a 2025 record of 1,929 before the sharp decline.
- Approval rate: 98 % in H1.
- Note: The decline may reflect slower new filings rather than reduced demand; processing backlogs could also be a factor.
Qualified Investor Visa
- H1 approvals: 100 → projected 200 for the year (down from 327 in both 2024 and 2025).
- Weakest total since: 2023 (187 approvals).
- Approval rate: 96 % in H1.
- Outlook: Expected to capture a larger share of Panama’s investment‑migration market as the program gains international promotion.
Solvencia propia routes
- Fixed‑deposit: 56 approvals in H1 → projected 112 (down from 141 in 2025).
- Real‑estate: 32 approvals in H1 → projected 64 (just above the 2023 low of 63).
- Procedural change: Buyers of existing property now must obtain an independent audit and appraisal, costing a few thousand dollars, to curb low‑price resale schemes that offered little economic benefit.
Combined, the three non‑FNV investor categories are projected at 376 approvals for 2026—a 32 % decline from 2025 and 40 % below the 2024 high of 631. Their 2023 trough was 355.
Approval rates
- FNV: 96 %
- Jubilados y Pensionados: 98 %
- Fixed‑deposit: 98 %
- QIV: 96 %
- Real‑estate: 96 %
All rates remain within the 93 %–100 % band observed since 2022, indicating that the lower volumes are due to fewer files reaching a decision rather than stricter screening.
Seasonal and procedural considerations
- The immigration service does not publish separate H1/H2 figures for prior years; annualized totals are flat‑line projections and could shift with seasonal filing patterns.
- QIV has a statutory decision period of 30 business days (Decreto Ejecutivo 722), so its approvals track filings closely.
- FNV files undergo a longer assessment before provisional permits are issued, potentially creating a lag between filings and approvals.
Outlook
Analysts suggest the second half of 2026 could see higher numbers as international promotion intensifies, but the overall direction of new filings remains uncertain. If the flat‑line projection holds, 2026 would rank as Panama’s second‑weakest year for capital‑based immigration since 2015, surpassed only by 2020 (≈ 2,900 approvals) and narrowly below 2019’s 3,196 approvals.
Source article: www.imidaily.com
