Britain’s Labour leader Andy Burnham has signalled that, after the next general election, the United Kingdom could pursue a formal return to the European Union. In an interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme (30 Sept) he outlined three incremental options—maintaining the status‑quo, joining a customs union, or re‑entering the single market—before hinting that “going all the way” and re‑joining the EU might be on the table. He intends to present these scenarios at a UK‑EU summit slated for November, after which negotiations on a chosen path would begin.
Political backdrop and public opinion
- Labour manifesto (2024) – Rules out re‑joining the single market, customs union, or freedom of movement while the party is in government.
- Polling – Public First (for Politico) found 70 % of voters favour closer EU ties; an early‑summer poll placed support for full membership at roughly 55 %.
- Opposition – Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice accused Burnham of a “stealth” attempt to return to Brussels. Burnham’s own constituency, Makerfield, was one of the strongest Leave‑voting seats in the 2016 referendum.
EU reaction and accession conditions
- France and Spain – President Emmanuel Macron (in Madrid) welcomed the idea with a “Welcome back” but warned the UK could not “pick and choose” among the EU’s freedoms. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez echoed the sentiment.
- European Commission – Spokesperson Paula Pinho said the Commission cannot predict the outcome and that London must first define the relationship it seeks.
- Treaty requirement – Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states for any new accession.
- Opt‑outs – The UK’s previous exemptions from the euro and the Schengen Area lapsed on exit; a re‑joining UK would have to renegotiate these areas.
- Associate‑member model – The Commission has floated an “associate member” status (as being discussed with Canada) that could offer a looser form of partnership, though the legal framework remains undefined.
Brexit’s impact on mobility and migration
- Free movement ended – 31 Dec 2020.
- Net migration – ONS data show a record 944 000 net migrants in the year to March 2023, driven mainly by non‑EU arrivals; the figure fell to 171 000 by calendar year 2025.
- Passport rights – British citizens lost the automatic right to settle in the EU/EEA; only the Common Travel Area with Ireland remains, and Schengen stays are limited to 90 days in any 180‑day period.
- Naturalisation – 123 819 Britons acquired citizenship in another EU country between 2016‑2023 (Eurostat). An additional ~120 000 claimed Irish citizenship via ancestry, bringing the total of Brexit‑driven citizenship changes to over 210 000 (lower bound).
Economic fallout and wealth outflows
- Golden‑visa programmes – Despite losing EU citizenship, British nationals remained the fourth‑largest group in Portugal’s Golden Visa, with 147 investor permits in 2024.
- Tax‑driven departures – The abolition of the UK’s non‑dom regime in April 2025 prompted high‑net‑worth individuals to relocate to jurisdictions with favourable tax regimes (e.g., Dubai, Milan under Italy’s €300 000 flat tax, Greece).
- Millionaire exodus – Henley reported 10 800 millionaire departures in 2024. A Financial Times analysis identified 3 790 company directors moving abroad between Oct 2024 and July 2025, a 40 % increase on the prior year.
Implications for the investment‑migration market
- Reduced demand for EU residence – Full EU membership would restore settlement rights for British citizens, diminishing the incentive to purchase European residence or citizenship by descent.
- UK’s own investor routes – The Tier 1 Investor visa closed in Feb 2022; a proposed £5 million invite‑only visa (≈ US$6.8 million) remains unconfirmed.
- Regulatory scrutiny – The EU Court of Justice’s 2025 ruling against Malta’s citizenship‑by‑investment scheme signals that any UK‑based investor programme operating within the EU would face similar legal challenges.
Outlook
Burnham has pledged to detail the three options at the November summit, after which any agreement would require parliamentary approval and, for full accession, unanimous consent from all EU members. Until a post‑election decision is made, British individuals seeking EU rights will continue to obtain them through alternative passports, residency permits, or ancestry‑based citizenship routes.
Source article: www.imidaily.com
