Portugal’s golden visa program is facing renewed uncertainty as applicants deal with long processing delays and a proposed citizenship timeline increase from five years to ten years. The change could affect thousands of investors who entered the program expecting a shorter path to Portuguese nationality.
Portugal golden visa background
Portugal’s golden visa program began in 2012.
By 2025, the program had been running for about 13 years and had issued roughly 33,000 residence permits.
This includes:
- Around 12,700 main applicants
- Around 20,000 dependents
Historically, the program was driven mainly by Chinese and Brazilian applicants. It later became popular with:
- British applicants
- Americans
- Canadians
- Indians
- Other international investors
The program is described as more popular than many other European golden visa options, including programs in:
- Greece
- Latvia
- Spain
Processing delays and backlog
The main problem is delay.
Applicants are facing around 24 months or more of delay for pre-approval. In some cases, applications are described as being delayed by up to three years.
The delays are linked to several issues, including:
- Problems with SEF
- Transition to AIMA
- Administrative backlog
- Policy changes
- High application volume
- Restructuring of the immigration department
The backlog affects not only golden visa applicants, but also other Portuguese visa categories, including:
- D7 visa
- D2 visa
- NHR-related residency applications
- Other immigration routes
The popularity of Portugal’s tax and residency options has added pressure to the immigration system.
End of real estate investment route
In October 2023, Portugal excluded real estate investment from the golden visa program.
Before that change, real estate was a major driver of golden visa demand.
The removal of real estate created a surge in applications before the change took effect, which contributed to the backlog.
Current golden visa routes include:
- Investment funds
- Job creation
- Cultural or research routes
- Non-refundable cultural donation-style investment
The investment amount is now commonly around €500,000, compared with earlier real estate options that could be as low as €280,000 in some cases.
Despite the removal of real estate and the higher investment level, demand has remained strong.
Citizenship timeline issue
A key attraction of Portugal was the ability to apply for citizenship after five years of legal residence.
In April 2024, a reform clarified that the five-year citizenship clock would start from the date of application submission. This was positive for applicants affected by delays.
However, the new concern is a proposal to extend the citizenship timeline from five years to ten years.
The proposed longer timeline may not apply equally to everyone. The transcript says exceptions may exist for people with Portuguese roots or links to the Portuguese-speaking world, including:
- Brazilians
- Members of the CPLP community
- Countries such as Angola
- Sao Tome and Principe
If the timeline becomes ten years, applicants may face a much longer total wait. The transcript notes that after the residence period, obtaining the passport itself may still take up to three years.
That could make the total path to citizenship around 13 years in some cases.
Scale of pending applications
As of early 2025, the transcript says between 45,000 and 50,000 golden visa applicants were waiting for review.
This is in addition to applicants already issued permits.
The scale of the backlog matters because it represents both investor frustration and a large amount of capital tied to the Portuguese system.
Resubmission of documents
In January 2025, Portugal announced a resubmission of civil documents, along with automatic scheduling of biometrics.
Applicants were asked to resubmit paperwork.
The transcript says that about nine months later, little had materialized from that process.
Some applicants reportedly wondered whether the resubmission requirement was intended to test who remained serious about continuing with Portugal. However, the transcript says most applicants still resubmitted because they remained committed to Portugal and saw few comparable alternatives.
Structural changes to the process
Portugal has made some administrative changes intended to improve processing.
These include:
- Moving from paper-based applications to a digital system
- Involving private-sector lawyers to reduce pressure on the public immigration system
- Automatic biometric appointment scheduling
- Acceptance of documents in more languages
- Acceptance of English, Spanish, and French documents without local translation in some cases
- Legal actions by investors to accelerate delayed applications
Legal actions have reportedly helped some applicants, though the transcript warns that if too many people use that route, it may become less effective over time.
Possible capital flight from Portugal
The transcript estimates that if investors lose confidence and exit Portugal, between €1 billion and €3 billion could leave the Portuguese ecosystem.
This would include capital tied to:
- Real estate investments
- Investment funds
- Other golden visa-linked assets
The estimate is based on the long duration of the program, the number of applicants, and the different investment thresholds used over time.
Earlier investment routes included:
- €280,000 low-density renovation options
- €350,000 higher-density renovation options
- €500,000 routes
- Larger real estate purchases by some applicants, including properties of several million euros
If many investors exit at the same time, liquidity may become an issue. Real estate may not sell easily if too many people try to exit, and funds may have exit clauses or penalties.
Possible fund exit costs mentioned include:
- 5%
- 10%
- 15%
The transcript suggests that some investors may remain in Portugal rather than accept a loss, but a large outflow could still become a serious issue.
Why applicants may stay
Portugal may remain attractive even with delays because many alternatives have drawbacks.
Applicants may decide to stay if they conclude that other options do not match Portugal’s combination of:
- EU residence
- Potential citizenship route
- Lifestyle
- Tax planning
- Popularity
- Existing investment commitment
- Familiarity
- Family relocation potential
The transcript argues that many people chose Portugal precisely because it was difficult to find another country with the same overall package.
Alternative options
Several alternatives are discussed for golden visa applicants who are frustrated with Portugal.
Italy
Italy is presented as one of the main alternatives.
Italy has an investor visa route starting at €250,000.
Its citizenship timeline is already 10 years, so it does not provide a shorter naturalization path than the proposed Portuguese timeline. However, the lower investment amount may make it attractive.
Compared with a €500,000 Portuguese fund investment, Italy may allow an applicant to invest €250,000 and use the remaining capital elsewhere.
Possible uses for the remaining capital mentioned include:
- More liquid investments
- Gold
- Bitcoin
- Other vehicles outside a restricted golden visa fund
Italy may also be attractive because of its flat-tax regime.
The transcript says Italy’s lump-sum tax regime is attracting private equity professionals and others leaving the UK and moving to Milan. The regime is described as costing €200,000 per year.
Italy is still described as being in relatively early stages compared with Portugal’s popularity.
Spain
Spain no longer has a golden visa, but it may still be attractive for people who actually want to live there.
Spain’s main appeal in this context is the Beckham Law, described as a favorable tax regime.
The transcript suggests Spain may be especially attractive for people with:
- A Portuguese partner
- A South American partner
- A Brazilian partner
- A Latin American connection
The reason is that certain Latin American or Portuguese-linked applicants may be able to apply for Spanish nationality after two years of residence.
The transcript says a spouse may then be able to obtain nationality within an additional year through marriage.
This creates a possible path of around three years in some cases, depending on personal eligibility.
This is presented as potentially attractive for couples where one partner qualifies under Spain’s shorter citizenship rules.
Greece
Greece is another alternative.
The Greek golden visa starts at €250,000.
Greece is described as having managed its golden visa system more effectively than Portugal and as being more open to business.
The main comparison is investment amount. Greece may require half the capital of Portugal’s €500,000 route.
The transcript notes that language may matter when comparing citizenship paths: Portuguese may be easier for some applicants than Greek, but this depends on the person.
Latvia
Latvia is mentioned as an inexpensive alternative.
The amount mentioned is €50,000.
This is described as very attractive for applicants looking for a lower-cost European residence route.
Citizenship by descent
Citizenship by descent is presented as another option.
The transcript says around one in ten Americans may be eligible for citizenship from countries such as:
- Ireland
- Poland
- Germany
- Austria
- Italy
This route may cost far less than a golden visa and may take around two years in some cases.
The main requirement is qualifying ancestry and proper documentation.
UAE and Oman
Some applicants already in Portugal may decide they prefer a faster or more dynamic environment.
The UAE is mentioned as an option for people seeking tax benefits, business opportunity, and a more active pace.
Oman is mentioned as another option for people who want the same general region, tax benefits, and a slower lifestyle. The transcript says Oman recently launched a relevant option, though details are not provided.
Caribbean passport
A Caribbean passport is mentioned as another possible option for applicants who want citizenship rather than a long residence process.
The transcript notes that around 40% of the speaker’s clients already had a second passport before starting the Portugal process, whether Caribbean or another nationality.
For those applicants, Portugal was often a medium- to long-term residency or EU citizenship strategy rather than their only backup plan.
Why diversification matters
The broader lesson is that applicants should not depend entirely on one country, one residency route, or one citizenship timeline.
Many people entered Portugal expecting a clear five-year path. Delays, policy changes, and proposed legislation show that even strong programs can change.
A more diversified strategy may include:
- A second passport
- A second residency
- A tax residency plan
- More than one regional option
- Investments outside one country
- A backup plan if rules change
The transcript argues that relying entirely on one country can create the same kind of risk people were trying to escape in the first place.
Possible action for applicants
The transcript suggests that investors may need to organize and communicate the scale of potential capital loss to the Portuguese government.
The argument is that Portugal could lose billions of euros if the proposed citizenship extension causes applicants to exit.
The proposed action is to collect information from affected applicants and use it to show the government the potential consequences of extending the citizenship timeline.
The goal is to give applicants a voice rather than leave them waiting passively while the law is debated.
Practical decision criteria
Golden visa investors should consider:
- How far they are into the Portugal process
- Whether they already have pre-approval
- Whether they have completed biometrics
- Whether their five-year clock started from submission
- Whether the proposed ten-year rule would affect them
- Whether they are willing to wait for citizenship
- Whether they can tolerate another several years of delay
- Whether their investment is liquid
- Whether exiting would trigger losses or penalties
- Whether Italy, Greece, Latvia, Spain, UAE, Oman, citizenship by descent, or a Caribbean passport would solve the same problem
- Whether they need EU citizenship, EU residence, tax planning, lifestyle, or simply a Plan B
- Whether they should overlap Portugal with another option rather than abandon it
Practical takeaway
Portugal remains a highly attractive residency and citizenship option, but the program is under pressure from delays, administrative backlog, and the proposed extension of the citizenship timeline from five years to ten years.
The program has issued about 33,000 residence permits since 2012, while 45,000 to 50,000 applicants may still be waiting for review. Some applications are delayed by up to three years, and if citizenship processing also takes years, the total timeline could become much longer than many investors expected.
Applicants should review their position carefully. Some may still decide Portugal remains the best option. Others may consider alternatives such as Italy, Greece, Latvia, Spain, UAE, Oman, citizenship by descent, or a Caribbean passport.
The strongest strategy is not to rely on one country or one promise. Investors should understand their timeline, liquidity, tax position, family goals, and backup options before deciding whether to stay, exit, or add another residency or citizenship route.
