Video Briefing

Expat Money ®: What’s The REAL Risk of Investing In RUSSIA Today? – Swen Lorenz

Oct 20, 2021Video Briefing62:55Watch on YouTube

International investing is presented as a way to reduce concentration risk, find undervalued opportunities, and diversify across countries, currencies, political systems, and cultural regions. The discussion focuses on why investors should look beyond domestic markets, especially toward Russia, Argentina, Eastern Europe, and other less crowded markets.

The investor profiled in the transcript began investing at age 15 and has more than 31 years of stock market experience by age 46. His approach is global: instead of limiting investments to one country or region, he looks across the world for undervalued companies that private investors can access directly.

The core argument is that looking abroad is not necessarily riskier than investing only at home. In some cases, international investing can reduce risk by avoiding overconcentration in one political system, currency, market, or economic cycle.

Why look beyond domestic markets

Many investors assume foreign markets are automatically more dangerous because they are unfamiliar. The transcript argues that this fear often comes from lack of knowledge, language barriers, unfamiliar cultures, and negative media coverage.

The discussion compares this to travel: a country may seem strange from the outside, but once a person spends time there, talks to locals, and understands the culture, the perceived risk often decreases.

The same logic is applied to investing. A Canadian or American investor may view Russia, Argentina, or Eastern Europe as exotic or risky, while a local investor may see those markets as normal and familiar.

The practical advice is to educate yourself, avoid relying only on mainstream headlines, and research markets directly before dismissing them.

Contrarian investing

The transcript emphasizes contrarian investing: looking for opportunities before they become popular.

The investor says he prefers situations where others call the idea strange or risky, because that may indicate the market has not yet priced in the opportunity.

The argument is that if everyone already agrees an investment is attractive, much of the upside may already be gone.

This approach does not guarantee success. The transcript acknowledges that contrarian investing will not produce a “home run” every time. But when it works, the returns can be much larger because the investor entered before the crowd.

Concerns about U.S. mega-cap stocks

The discussion contrasts undervalued international opportunities with heavily owned U.S. technology stocks, including the major “FANG” names.

The concern is valuation. Large U.S. technology companies such as Amazon, Google/Alphabet, Facebook, and similar names are described as widely owned and expensive.

The transcript notes that many large hedge funds hold the same mega-cap technology stocks, raising the question of why investors should pay high hedge fund fees for exposure they could buy directly.

The argument is not that these are bad companies. The transcript says many of them have been excellent investments. The concern is that they may be vulnerable if interest rates rise or if inflation changes market assumptions.

The transcript connects this to broader macro risks:

  • Very low interest rates
  • Rising inflation
  • Large public and private debt loads
  • Possible stagflation
  • Political pressure to keep rates low
  • High valuations in crowded sectors

The practical point is that investors should avoid having all their capital tied to one over-owned theme or one domestic market.

Diversification as risk management

Diversification is framed as more than owning several stocks.

The transcript argues that real diversification includes:

  • Different countries
  • Different currencies
  • Different political systems
  • Different cultural regions
  • Different industries
  • Different banking systems
  • Different legal environments
  • Different asset custody locations

The discussion warns that holding assets only across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand may not be true diversification because those countries are culturally and politically aligned in many ways.

A broader diversification strategy may include Latin America, the Middle East, Turkey, Russia, former Soviet countries, China, and other regions outside the Western bloc.

The idea is to reduce exposure to one system or one set of political risks.

Political risk cuts both ways

The transcript argues that political risk exists everywhere, not only in emerging markets.

Examples discussed include:

  • U.S. energy policy affecting fracking
  • Western countries increasing censorship or platform controls
  • Social media censorship
  • Banking restrictions linked to political views
  • Pandemic-era lockdowns and travel restrictions
  • Power reliability issues in places such as California
  • Energy risks in Western Europe

The point is that investors should not assume developed markets are automatically safe. Political decisions in developed countries can also damage industries, create shortages, or push capital elsewhere.

Argentina and fracking

Argentina is presented as an example of a contrarian opportunity.

The transcript discusses an Argentinian energy company connected to fracking. The thesis was that restrictions or moratoriums on additional fracking development in the United States could push equipment, expertise, and capital toward Argentina.

Argentina is described as having some of the world’s largest shale energy reserves.

The stock discussed was said to trade around $15 when first presented and later reached about $20. The speaker describes it as one of the cheapest stocks globally at the time of analysis, placing it in the cheapest 1% of listed stocks by valuation.

The company was also described as buying back stock. According to the transcript, management repurchased more than 20% of the company’s shares over roughly two years, using excess cash.

The broader argument is that crisis markets can contain strong companies whose valuations are depressed by national reputation, political history, or investor fear.

Crisis investing and public perception

The transcript notes that investing in crisis-hit countries can attract criticism.

One criticism mentioned was the idea that buying discounted assets in Argentina makes investors “vultures.” The response given is that buying publicly traded shares can bring attention, capital, and liquidity to companies rather than directly harming local people.

The transcript distinguishes between exploitative behavior and investing in listed companies that need capital, investor interest, or market recognition.

The practical caveat is that investors should still do their own research and understand the risks. Crisis investing can be volatile and politically sensitive.

Russia as an undervalued market

Russia is presented as one of the cheapest equity markets in the world at the time discussed.

The transcript says that around two to two and a half years before the conversation, many leading Russian companies traded at extremely low valuations, including price-to-earnings ratios of 2x or 3x.

The market was widely avoided because of concerns about:

  • Vladimir Putin
  • State intervention
  • Corruption
  • Corporate governance
  • Demographics
  • Political tensions
  • War risk
  • Negative Western media coverage

Despite these concerns, the transcript argues that some Russian companies offered unusually low prices, high cash flows, and very large dividends.

Russian retail investor growth

A major change discussed is the rise of Russian retail investors.

Over the previous 24 months, millions of Russians reportedly began investing in the stock market. This was compared with the retail investor boom in the United States.

Drivers mentioned include:

  • Easier trading technology
  • Lower trading costs
  • Internet-based financial information
  • Falling interest rates in Russia
  • Search for higher returns

Russian investors were described as buying familiar domestic brand names, including companies they encounter in daily life, as well as U.S. stocks traded locally.

The transcript mentions that American stocks such as major technology names are available on the Saint Petersburg Stock Exchange.

Russian dividend yields

The transcript highlights Russian dividend yields as a central part of the investment case.

A list of the top 40 Russian dividend-paying companies is discussed. The lowest-yielding company on that list reportedly paid around 6%, while the top 10 paid above 12%.

This is compared with U.S. dividend yields, where typical levels may be far lower.

The point is that Russian equities were offering income levels rarely available in more heavily analyzed markets.

Gazprom example

Gazprom is used as the main Russian stock example.

It is described as:

  • Russia’s largest company
  • The world’s largest gas company
  • A major supplier of energy to Europe
  • A company trading at very low valuations when first analyzed
  • A company that later rose significantly in price

The transcript states that Gazprom had been promoted as an opportunity for about two and a half years.

At the time discussed, Gazprom was still described as offering around a 12% dividend yield. Investors who bought earlier were said to be earning more than 25% per year in dividend yield based on their original purchase price.

The investment thesis was based on:

  • Low valuation
  • Essential energy product
  • High dividends
  • European dependence on gas
  • New pipeline connections to China
  • Long-term gas demand
  • Better governance than the market assumed

The transcript argues that Gazprom was not necessarily riskier than expensive domestic stocks because the valuation was so low and the business was tied to a basic commodity.

European energy dependence

Russia’s energy role is discussed in relation to Germany and Europe.

Germany’s decision in 2011 to shut down nuclear power by 2022 is described as a major policy mistake. The transcript argues that Germany did not build enough replacement energy infrastructure and remains dependent on Russian gas.

The discussion also notes that Europe was again talking about possible blackouts, including planning exercises in Austria for what could happen if power were out for more than three days.

The broader point is that energy security is becoming a major investment and lifestyle issue.

Eastern Europe and Russia as lifestyle alternatives

The transcript says some people are beginning to look at Russia, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans as possible alternatives to Western countries.

Reasons discussed include:

  • Fewer restrictions in some places
  • Greater perceived personal freedom
  • Less political instability than expected
  • Lower cost of living
  • Investment opportunities
  • Desire for a Plan B outside the Western system

The discussion mentions that some people are considering moving to Russia, although the speaker says he has not necessarily seen many follow through.

Poland is also highlighted positively. Warsaw is described as safe, clean, sane, pleasant, developing, and more attractive than expected compared with places such as San Francisco.

Russia’s banking and technology infrastructure

Russia is described as more technologically advanced than many outsiders assume.

The transcript highlights Tinkoff Bank as a major digital-only bank. It is described as:

  • A Russian bank
  • One of the world’s leading digital-only banks
  • One of the most profitable digital-only banks
  • A major fintech company
  • Listed on the London Stock Exchange
  • Rapidly growing

The stock was said to have risen roughly sevenfold over about 18 months, though the transcript notes it may have become overheated in the short term.

The broader point is that Russia is not only old-economy energy and banking. It also has significant technology and fintech businesses.

Russia’s national balance sheet

The transcript presents Russia’s national finances as a source of stability.

Figures mentioned include:

  • Debt-to-GDP ratio of around 15%
  • About $600 billion in currency reserves

This is contrasted with Western countries described as heavily indebted and reliant on money printing.

The ruble is described as undervalued at the time discussed, with potential inflows over future years.

The argument is that a low-debt country with large reserves may offer a different kind of currency and sovereign risk profile than highly indebted Western markets.

Accessing Russian stocks

Investors interested in Russian equities are advised to first check whether their broker can trade them.

Access routes mentioned include:

  • ADRs on the New York Stock Exchange
  • Listings on the London Stock Exchange
  • Direct access to the Moscow market through certain brokers
  • Interactive Brokers as an example of a platform that may provide access

The transcript suggests that investors do not need to focus on obscure small-cap companies. For many people, Russian exposure can begin with established blue-chip companies.

Examples of Russian sectors and companies mentioned include:

  • Gas and energy
  • Airlines, including Aeroflot
  • Banking
  • Supermarkets
  • E-commerce
  • Digital banking

The transcript suggests that research is easier than many people assume because major Russian companies can be reasonably transparent and accessible online.

Currency diversification

The transcript notes that investing in local currency can provide stronger diversification than buying foreign exposure only through U.S.-dollar instruments.

For example, buying a Russian company in rubles may give exposure not only to the stock but also to the currency.

The speaker prefers local-currency exposure where practical, because holding all investments in U.S. dollars through a domestic brokerage account may reduce the diversification benefit.

China, Russia, and a changing global order

The discussion also connects Russian investing to wider geopolitical shifts.

Russia and China are described as moving closer together and becoming less dependent on the United States or the petrodollar system.

Themes discussed include:

  • China-Russia alignment
  • South China Sea tensions
  • Taiwan-related tensions
  • Reduced reliance on Washington-led systems
  • Parallel infrastructure for payments, banking, and internet connectivity
  • Energy independence and commodity power

The transcript argues that the world is fracturing into blocs, with walls that may be physical, digital, financial, cultural, or political.

This makes international diversification more important.

Sovereign internet and banking resilience

Russia is described as working on infrastructure to reduce dependence on Western-controlled systems.

Examples mentioned include:

  • A sovereign internet that cannot easily be switched off from outside
  • Preparation for possible disconnection from SWIFT
  • Efforts to ensure domestic banking continuity

The transcript presents this as strategically important. The speaker says he is interested in having bank accounts in jurisdictions “on the other side” of potential future walls.

The practical idea is that once restrictions are imposed, it may be too late to set up accounts, residency, or infrastructure elsewhere.

Censorship and technology risk

The transcript links investment and personal planning to censorship and platform risk.

The speaker says he avoided building dependence on social media as early as 2016 because he expected censorship to increase.

The discussion mentions a Polish law intended to protect citizens against censorship by social media giants. Poland is contrasted with countries moving toward more restrictive online regulation.

The broader point is that technology risk is not only about investment returns. It also affects communication, banking access, business operations, and personal sovereignty.

Privacy and sovereignty as investment themes

The transcript suggests that new investment opportunities may emerge from the demand for privacy, personal sovereignty, and censorship-resistant infrastructure.

Possible future themes include:

  • Privacy as a service
  • Individual sovereignty as a service
  • Alternative banking systems
  • Alternative payment systems
  • Resilient internet infrastructure
  • Tools for people who want to reduce dependence on major platforms

The argument is that every major problem creates opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors.

Onassis example and geographic diversification

The transcript uses Aristotle Onassis as an example of old-style global diversification.

Onassis is described as someone whose family lost everything after foreign occupation and who later became a major oil tanker magnate. He was rumored to keep money spread across many countries so that if wealth was confiscated in one place, he would still have assets elsewhere.

The lesson is that older generations understood the risk of losing everything through war, inflation, confiscation, or political upheaval.

The transcript argues that those risks are returning, now amplified by technology.

Practical investment principles

The discussion suggests several principles for investors:

  • Do not limit yourself to one country or market.
  • Avoid assuming foreign markets are automatically riskier.
  • Look for undervalued companies where sentiment is poor.
  • Treat political risk as global, not only emerging-market risk.
  • Diversify across currencies, regions, sectors, and systems.
  • Research local markets and local investor behavior.
  • Be cautious with crowded trades and overowned mega-cap stocks.
  • Consider commodity, energy, banking, and infrastructure themes.
  • Use global brokers or foreign listings where practical.
  • Do not rely only on mainstream media or headline narratives.
  • Keep cultural and geopolitical diversification in mind.

The core takeaway is that international investing can be part of a broader personal and financial Plan B. The transcript presents Russia, Argentina, Eastern Europe, and other less fashionable markets as examples of places where valuations, dividends, energy trends, and geopolitical shifts may create opportunities, while also requiring careful research and awareness of political, currency, and market-access risks.