The ongoing war in Iran is poised to reshape the market for second‑residence and citizenship‑by‑investment (CBI) programmes worldwide. Geopolitical tension is already prompting some countries to adjust fees, introduce new pathways, or tighten eligibility, while others may become less welcoming to Western applicants. Investors and frequent travelers should therefore reassess their “Plan B” strategies now, before further restrictions take hold.
Gulf states – price pressure and new entry routes
- United Arab Emirates (UAE) – continues to offer fast‑track “golden visa” options (e.g., for yacht owners) with approvals often completed in a few hours. The UAE is unlikely to lower fees, but its streamlined process keeps it attractive for capital‑rich applicants.
- Saudi Arabia – a lifetime permanent‑residence scheme is priced at US $213,000. No price cut is expected, yet the programme could be expanded to include bond‑investment alternatives rather than pure donations.
- Oman – currently relies on high‑value bond options that run into the seven‑figure range, making it less competitive against European schemes such as Greece’s golden visa. A price reduction or a lower‑threshold bond could make Oman more viable.
- Kuwait – has not yet launched a notable residency product, but the country’s desire to diversify its economy may lead to a future capital‑injection scheme.
Overall, Gulf programmes remain relatively inexpensive and administratively simple, but investors should watch for price reductions aimed at attracting more foreign capital if the Iran conflict drags on.
Asian residency programmes – rising costs and shifting demand
- Malaysia (MM2H) – the minimum bank deposit requirement has doubled from US $75,000 to US $150,000, and applicants must now spend several months a year in the country and purchase property. The ringgit’s recent appreciation (up 15‑20 % against the USD) adds pressure on affordability.
- Thailand & the Philippines – continue to offer lower‑cost property‑linked residency (around US $75,000 in the Philippines). While the Philippines passport is modest in travel power, it provides an English‑speaking base and a relatively easy naturalisation route.
- Vietnam & Cambodia – are attracting Eastern‑European and Russian expatriates as alternatives to the Gulf. Vietnam may evolve into a more prominent expat hub, potentially offering higher‑value residency options in the near term.
Demand from Russians and other Eastern Europeans, displaced by sanctions and the war, is driving price increases across Southeast Asian programmes. Investors should consider securing property‑based residencies now before fees climb further.
Africa – emerging CBI opportunities
Several African nations are preparing or have already launched citizenship‑by‑investment schemes:
- Botswana – slated to introduce a CBI programme (details pending).
- São Tomé and Príncipe, Egypt – already operating CBI schemes.
- Sierra Leone – recently engaged with programme developers to expand its offering.
The continent’s growing intra‑regional trade, new infrastructure projects (e.g., Chinese‑backed routes), and the need for external capital are likely to make African passports attractive for business owners seeking land ownership, regional banking access, and a hedge against Western visa restrictions. Although African passports typically grant fewer visa‑free destinations, they can serve as strategic assets for investment and mobility within Africa.
Visa‑free travel is becoming politicised
Recent examples illustrate a trend toward using visa‑free access as a diplomatic lever:
- Georgian diplomats now require visas for travel to the Schengen area.
- St. Lucia and Dominica have lost visa‑free entry to the United Kingdom.
- Some African states have begun restricting entry for U.S. citizens.
Future policies may see countries deny visa‑free travel to nationals of nations involved in conflicts, or impose additional bureaucratic hurdles (e.g., banking restrictions tied to FATCA). This could limit the utility of certain passports for global mobility and financial transactions.
Implications for U.S. citizens
- Filtering out Americans – A handful of West African states already bar U.S. visitors; more may follow, especially where domestic political pressure favours limiting Western influence.
- Residency friction – Obtaining bank accounts or transferring funds may become harder for Americans due to heightened FATCA scrutiny.
- Potential conscription – Some European nations could reinstate mandatory military service, affecting dual‑citizens who hold passports from those countries.
Given these risks, relying on a single “Plan B” (e.g., Dubai) is insufficient. Diversifying across multiple jurisdictions—spanning Gulf, Asian, African, and possibly Central Asian regions—provides redundancy against sudden policy shifts.
Practical steps to safeguard mobility and assets
- Monitor fee changes in Gulf programmes; a price drop could make a lifetime residence more affordable.
- Secure property‑linked residencies in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, or Vietnam before requirements tighten.
- Explore emerging African CBI schemes for business‑friendly passports, even if travel benefits are modest.
- Diversify banking relationships across jurisdictions to mitigate potential FATCA‑related account closures.
- Maintain multiple residency options (e.g., a Gulf residence, an Asian property permit, and an African passport) to ensure at least one route remains open if others become restricted.
By proactively building a portfolio of second residencies and passports now, investors can preserve financial flexibility, protect family mobility, and reduce exposure to the geopolitical fallout of the Iran war and related global tensions.
