The historian Ken Burns recently warned that the United States is experiencing a convergence of crises comparable to the Civil War, the Great Depression and World War II. In a podcast interview he cited Abraham Lincoln’s 1838 warning about internal danger and argued that the nation is “looking down the muzzle of that gun.” Burns’ assessment reflects a growing perception among affluent Americans that political, economic and social conditions are deteriorating rapidly.
Economic and social pressures
- Tax escalation – Federal and state tax rates are rising, with proposals for wealth taxes, higher capital‑gains taxes and “unrealized” capital‑gains levies.
- Cultural backlash against wealth – Success and small‑business ownership are increasingly portrayed as socially undesirable; calls for higher minimum wages (e.g., $15‑$30 hour) are being used to justify punitive policies.
- Crime trends – Reported murders rose roughly 30 % in 2020 and another 12 % in 2021, while cities such as New York and San Francisco are experiencing higher overall crime rates.
- Political polarization – Recent elections have become more hostile, with ad‑hominem attacks and a rise in civil unrest. Some states (e.g., California) have announced aggressive tax‑increase plans that could extend to former residents for up to ten years.
State‑level tax competition
- High‑tax states – California is pursuing steep tax hikes and may continue to tax former residents.
- Low‑tax destinations – Texas, Florida and Tennessee have attracted many high‑net‑worth individuals seeking lower tax burdens and fewer regulatory constraints.
Second residency and citizenship options
For those concerned about the possibility of civil unrest, reduced freedoms, or further tax encroachments, obtaining an additional legal residence or passport is presented as a risk‑mitigation strategy.
| Option | Typical cost / requirements | Key benefits |
|---|---|---|
| Caribbean citizenship‑by‑investment | Investment of several hundred thousand dollars (often in real estate) | Visa‑free travel to many countries, quick processing (often under three weeks), stable political environment |
| Mexican permanent residence | Proof of income or investment; relatively low cost | Easy land border entry, lower cost of living, proximity to the U.S. |
| European residency (e.g., Portugal Golden Visa) | Real‑estate purchase of €280 k‑€500 k or capital transfer | Schengen‑area access, pathway to citizenship after five years |
| U.S. state relocation | Move to a low‑tax state and establish domicile | Retains U.S. citizenship while reducing state tax exposure |
Practical considerations
- Tax planning – Even if a zero‑tax jurisdiction is unattainable, many high‑net‑worth individuals are willing to accept a modest tax rate (e.g., 10 %) in exchange for greater personal freedom and stability.
- Speed of relocation – While a full passport cannot be obtained in three days, a temporary residence permit or a “plan B” property purchase can be arranged quickly, especially with the assistance of specialized advisors.
- Legal exposure – Some U.S. states have introduced “exit taxes” that could apply for up to a decade after relocation; thorough legal counsel is essential.
- Diversification of assets – Holding wealth in multiple jurisdictions can protect against unilateral policy changes, currency devaluation, or confiscation.
Decision framework
- Assess risk tolerance – Evaluate personal exposure to potential civil unrest, tax increases, and regulatory changes.
- Identify preferred jurisdictions – Consider language, lifestyle, tax regime, and ease of entry.
- Calculate total cost – Include investment, legal fees, ongoing compliance, and travel logistics.
- Implement a phased plan – Secure a residence permit or citizenship first, then acquire property or establish a local business presence.
- Maintain flexibility – Keep documentation and financial structures ready for rapid relocation if conditions deteriorate further.
While the United States remains a major economic power, the convergence of higher taxes, cultural hostility toward wealth, and rising crime has prompted a segment of affluent citizens to seek alternative bases of operation. Securing a second residence or passport offers a tangible hedge against these evolving risks.
