The residency‑by‑investment (RBI) market is facing a series of setbacks that are reshaping the landscape for investors and professionals alike.
Current setbacks
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Delayed programs in the Balkans – Montenegro and North Macedonia have issued only a handful of passports despite investors paying $200 k–$300 k. Processing times have stretched to two years, with less than half of applications completed. The lack of transparency makes these programs risky for new applicants.
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Geopolitical fallout – The war in Ukraine and broader Western sanctions have increased scrutiny on RBI schemes. Countries such as Albania, which were preparing citizenship‑by‑investment (CBI) programs, have stalled. Even attempts at “Bitcoin citizenship” in places like Suriname have collapsed. Investors from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus who entered programs before the conflict now find their funds frozen and due‑diligence fees (often around $10 k) unrecoverable.
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Caribbean crackdown – Several Caribbean jurisdictions have halted or delayed processing, leaving investors with locked‑up capital and no citizenship. Refunds are limited to administrative fees, leaving many without the promised benefits.
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Stagnant pipeline – Numerous new RBI programs that were expected to launch in 2023 never materialised. The absence of fresh options limits diversification for both clients and advisors.
A pragmatic approach for 2024
While the external environment remains volatile, a focused strategy can mitigate risk and preserve opportunities.
Personal resilience
- Prioritise health: adequate sleep, balanced nutrition, and regular exercise reduce anxiety and improve decision‑making.
- Embrace calculated risk: identify ventures with clear upside and manageable downside rather than avoiding risk altogether.
Portfolio diversification
- Identify “Plan A” passports – high‑value, stable citizenships (e.g., EU or US‑linked) that serve as primary safety nets.
- Develop “Plan B” residencies – secondary options that can be activated quickly, offering near‑term mobility or tax benefits.
- Maintain a “Plan C” fallback – lower‑cost or less‑guaranteed programs that still provide a degree of protection.
Candidate jurisdictions (split by region)
- Latin America: Dominican Republic, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Ecuador, Bolivia, Guyana, Jamaica, Barbados, El Salvador (noted for Bitcoin‑friendly policies).
- Europe & Eurasia: Armenia, Serbia, Hungary (working on a “golden visa”), potential EU‑linked schemes.
- Africa: South Africa, Tanzania (new residency option), Morocco (emerging interest).
- Middle East & Gulf: Oman (residency), Qatar (recent immigration reforms).
- Asia‑Pacific: Malaysia (mid‑range cost), Philippines (more affordable), Japan (opening pathways), South Korea (new options), potential programs in other Asian markets.
Strategic steps
- Narrow focus – select one or two jurisdictions that align with personal or business goals; avoid spreading resources across dozens of uncertain programs.
- Build a timeline – map immediate (12‑month) benefits, mid‑term (2‑3 years) gains, and long‑term (5‑10 years) objectives for each chosen option.
- Maintain confidentiality – keep secondary plans private; disclose only to trusted advisors to avoid market pressure or political backlash.
- Monitor regulatory shifts – stay informed about sanctions, immigration reforms, and emerging RBI schemes, especially in regions less affected by current geopolitical tensions.
By concentrating on health, calculated diversification, and discreet planning, investors can navigate the current RBI turbulence and position themselves for more stable mobility options in the coming years.
