The three countries most often cited as potential new citizenship‑by‑investment (CBI) programs—Albania, Suriname and Armenia—have all stalled, and none is likely to launch a fully operational scheme in 2023.
Albania
- Discussions about a CBI program have been ongoing for three to four years, but no legislative draft or concrete funding thresholds have been published.
- The lack of a draft suggests that the proposal is still being used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the EU, IMF and other Western bodies, which typically oppose new CBI schemes.
- Domestic opposition also hampers progress, turning the idea into a political talking point rather than a near‑term policy.
- Outlook: With no draft and no clear timetable, a launch in 2023 is considered unlikely.
Suriname
- In 2022 the government announced an intention to start a CBI program, but no official documentation or investment amounts have been released.
- As with Albania, the announcement appears to serve more as a negotiation lever than a concrete policy step.
- Outlook: Without a law or detailed proposal, Suriname is not expected to roll out a program this year.
Armenia
- Armenia came closest to formalising a CBI scheme. A draft outlined specific investment thresholds:
- US $150,000 in real‑estate, or
- US $100,000 in the information‑technology sector.
- The government pledged to publish a full draft in the first quarter of 2023, but the promised document never materialised.
- The next expected window for any update is the latter half of 2023, though no guarantee exists that the program will be enacted.
- Outlook: Armenia remains the most plausible candidate among the three, but investors should treat any 2023 launch as speculative.
Why CBI proposals stall
- External pressure: The EU, IMF and other Western institutions often threaten to withdraw benefits such as Schengen access if a country proceeds with a CBI program.
- Internal politics: Opposition parties can use the prospect of a CBI scheme to criticize the ruling government, adding another layer of resistance.
- Negotiation tool: Announcing a CBI program can be a strategic move to extract concessions or funding from international partners, rather than a genuine intent to implement the scheme.
Practical considerations for investors
- Focus on existing programs: Given the uncertainty surrounding these three proposals, investors should prioritize jurisdictions with established, operational CBI or residency schemes.
- Monitor official releases: Only programs backed by published legislation, clear investment thresholds and defined timelines should be considered.
- Assess risk tolerance: Emerging CBI projects carry higher political and regulatory risk; a stalled or cancelled program can leave investors without the expected residency or citizenship benefits.
In summary, while Armenia shows the most concrete steps toward a new CBI offering, none of the three countries is expected to deliver a functional citizenship‑by‑investment program within 2023. Investors should remain cautious and keep an eye on official government communications for any future developments.
