The rise of citizenship‑by‑investment (CBI) schemes has sparked interest in several emerging markets, but recent proposals from the Solomon Islands and Ghana raise questions about feasibility, passport value, and long‑term monitoring.
Solomon Islands – a tentative CBI plan
- Proposed price: around US $100,000.
- Passport strength: described as “near‑trash,” offering limited visa‑free travel.
- Implementation risk:
- The government would need approval from Western authorities, a process that has stalled similar initiatives in Albania, Serbia, and other countries.
- Historical precedent: Vanuatu launched a CBI program without securing lasting Western support, resulting in the loss of most visa‑free access.
- Potential outcomes:
- If the program follows Caribbean models (aligning with Western expectations), it may retain some travel benefits but could become unattractive to investors due to strict compliance requirements.
- If the program proceeds independently like Vanuatu, it risks immediate revocation of visa‑free access, rendering the passport practically unusable.
- Likelihood of launch: the speaker estimates a 95 % chance it will not materialize.
Ghana – diaspora‑focused CBI proposal
- Proposed price: US $50,000.
- Target market: primarily the African diaspora, similar to programs in Sierra Leone.
- Passport strength: also considered “near‑trash,” limiting its practical value for international travel.
- Likelihood of launch: assessed at ≈ 25 %, reflecting doubts about demand and passport utility.
Programs designed for intensive monitoring (“catch‑you” schemes)
Some CBI schemes are structured to maintain continuous scrutiny of applicants, extending beyond the initial due‑diligence phase:
- Ongoing surveillance: authorities may retain the right to audit financial records, tax filings, and personal history long after citizenship is granted.
- Risk for individuals with problematic backgrounds:
- Prior legal issues, tax irregularities, or actions deemed criminal in certain jurisdictions (e.g., LGBTQ‑related offenses in countries with punitive laws) can trigger revocation or denial.
- Even minor offenses in the applicant’s home country may be re‑examined under stricter standards.
- Suitability: such programs are only viable for applicants with a completely clean record and no foreseeable legal complications.
Practical considerations for prospective investors
- Assess passport utility: research visa‑free rankings and recent changes in diplomatic agreements before committing funds.
- Evaluate regulatory stability: programs that depend heavily on Western approval are more likely to retain travel benefits but may impose stringent compliance costs.
- Consider natural residency routes: obtaining permanent residency or citizenship through long‑term residence, family ties, or employment often provides a more stable “Plan B” without the risk of future revocation.
- Perform thorough due‑diligence: verify the sponsoring government’s track record, the program’s legal framework, and any clauses allowing post‑grant monitoring or revocation.
In summary, while the allure of rapid citizenship through investment persists, the Solomon Islands and Ghana proposals appear unlikely to launch successfully, and programs that embed extensive future monitoring pose significant risks for anyone with a non‑clean background. Prospective applicants should weigh passport strength, regulatory exposure, and alternative residency pathways before committing capital.
