The latest Henley & Partners–AlphaGeo Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index (GIRRI 2026) shows a rapid re‑ranking of country risk after the US‑Israel war on Iran, with investors repricing exposure by the hour.
Index snapshot
- Data cut‑off: Country Risk Premium (CRP) as of 1 April 2026, combined with client‑demand trends from the same period.
- Method: Structural resilience (long‑term factors) overlaid with real‑time market signals and investor behaviour, producing a “live” risk hierarchy.
Traditional safe havens remain at the top
| Rank | Country |
|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland |
| 2 | Denmark |
| 3 | Sweden (up 2 places) |
| 4 | Singapore |
| 5 | Norway (down 2 places) |
These Nordic and Singaporean jurisdictions retain their positions thanks to long‑standing institutional discipline and market trust rather than any recent improvement.
Notable movers among large economies
- China – rises 6 places to #31, reflecting improving market sentiment.
- Canada – falls 4 places to #15, the largest drop within the G7.
- United States – unchanged at #24.
- United Kingdom – unchanged at #19.
- Germany, Japan, and Italy each edge up modestly (Germany #8, Japan #26, Italy #35).
Emerging economies gaining ground
- India – up 40 places to #64.
- Philippines – up 40 places to #74.
- Türkiye – up 32 places to #88.
- Mexico – up 30 places to #66.
- Morocco – up 28 places to #70.
These gains are driven by perceived policy credibility, strategic trade positioning, and capacity to absorb volatility, rather than overnight fundamental changes.
Countries falling sharply
- Belarus – down 57 places to #117.
- Bolivia – down 28 places to #134.
- Ukraine – down 28 places to #131.
- Bosnia & Herzegovina – down 32 places to #89.
The declines reflect exposure to conflict, sanctions, or fiscal fragility.
Investor demand trends (Q1 2026 vs. Q4 2025)
- Residence / citizenship programs with the strongest application growth:
- Greece + 61 %
- Italy + 43 %
- Malta + 38 %
- Nauru + 200 %
- Programs with declining demand:
- Portugal − 37 %
- Enquiries up markedly:
- New Zealand + 165 %
- Costa Rica + 44 %
- Türkiye + 35 %
Overall, applications originated from over 70 nationalities across more than 40 different residence and citizenship programmes since January 2026.
Middle‑East conflict impact
- The Iran war has heightened geopolitical risk, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, adding a persistent risk premium across energy and strategic sectors.
- In the Gulf, enquiries from UAE‑based clients are up 41 % with applications rising 26 %, while interest in UAE “golden visas” fell 14 %.
- The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC signals a move toward greater strategic autonomy in a volatile energy environment.
Europe under pressure
- Core European economies remain relatively resilient, but the region faces structural strains: weak growth, energy vulnerability, and political fragmentation (e.g., recent defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán).
- Europe’s central role in global energy and financial transmission channels amplifies both its resilience and its exposure to external shocks.
Implications for investors
- No single jurisdiction now offers comprehensive protection; investors are increasingly building multi‑jurisdictional “sovereign portfolios” to preserve flexibility, security, and control.
- Decision‑making must adapt to a landscape where risk is continuously repriced rather than episodic, emphasizing diversification across stable, accessible, and opportunistic jurisdictions.
The full report and underlying datasets are available on the Henley & Partners website.
Source article: www.henleyglobal.com
