Spain closed its extraordinary regularization of undocumented migrants on 30 June, receiving 1,174,978 applications—more than twice the government’s original estimate of roughly 500,000. The figure has sparked debate after a police union cited a three‑million projection based on assumed family reunifications.
Application numbers and processing
- Total filings: 1,174,978 (closed 30 June)
- Files admitted to processing: 609,737 (as of 2 July)
- Definitive approvals: ~11,000
- The gap between the 500,000 forecast and the 1.2 million filings will be filled by rejections, withdrawals, and incomplete dossiers.
The three‑million estimate
- The Sindicato Profesional de Policía and immigration‑branch commanders calculated the figure by assuming each regularized migrant will eventually bring at least three relatives to Spain.
- This is a multiplier, not an official statistic; it has not been published by the government.
- Spanish law requires stable income and adequate housing for family reunification. The income floor is 150 % of the IPREM for a two‑person household, with an additional 50 % increase for each extra member—a threshold many newly regularized migrants may not meet.
Demographic profile of applicants
- Two‑thirds are from Latin America; Colombians constitute the largest single nationality at ≈ 26 %.
- Gender: 57 % male applicants.
- Age: 81 % under 45 years; 60 % under 34 years.
- Employment: Predominantly low‑wage sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and care work—jobs where the reunification income test is most restrictive.
Legal context
- On 8 July, the Supreme Court refused to suspend the royal decree governing the regularization and declined to refer the matter to the Court of Justice of the EU, rejecting challenges from the regional governments of Valencia and Aragón.
- A concurrent ruling struck down a provision that automatically denied residence to relatives of Spanish citizens with a criminal record, mandating case‑by‑case assessments instead.
Administrative strain
- The civil‑service union CSIF warned that roughly 500,000 case files had not yet been uploaded to Mercurio, the immigration‑paperwork platform, threatening office capacity.
- To alleviate the backlog, the National Police launched a “plan de choque,” paying officers €25 per hour for extra volunteer shifts.
- Police commanders complain that the Migration Ministry, rather than the National Police, is handling document and criminal‑record verification, raising concerns about potential fraudulent kinship claims.
Fiscal and social implications
- Foreign workers accounted for 14.1 % of Social Security contributors at the end of 2025, representing ≈ 3.1 million individuals. The Inclusion Ministry argues that regularization will increase contributions and reduce the shadow economy.
- Critics note that low wages limit the fiscal benefit and that dependents who do not work will rely on public health and education services without contributing financially.
Citizenship pathway
- For the predominantly Latin American cohort, Spanish citizenship can be obtained after two years of residence, compared with the standard ten‑year period for other nationals. This faster route may affect the timeline for achieving the durable status required for family reunification.
Outlook
Whether the three‑million projection materializes depends on:
- The proportion of applicants who receive definitive approval.
- Their ability to meet the income threshold for family reunification.
- The speed at which a one‑year provisional permit can be converted into a settled residence that confers reunification rights.
The scale of Spain’s regularization is clear, but the broader impact remains contingent on these variables.
Source article: www.imidaily.com
