Switzerland tops the newly released Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index (HGRI‑RR 2025), which combines a country’s exposure to geopolitical, economic and climate risks with its capacity to adapt and recover. Developed by Henley & Partners in partnership with the AI‑driven analytics platform AlphaGeo, the index aims to give investors, families and governments a systematic way to assess sovereign risk and resilience.
How the index is built
- Two‑pronged framework – risk exposure and resilience capacity are measured separately and then merged into a single score.
- Risk categories – markets are grouped into categories such as Prime Market (high resilience, low risk), Risk Watchlist (high risk, low resilience), Favorable Outlook, and Cautious Potential.
- Data sources – AlphaGeo’s geospatial intelligence feeds climate‑related data, while governance, innovation, social and economic indicators are drawn from global datasets.
Top performers (rank 1‑5)
| Rank | Country | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | Very low risk; leading innovation, governance and social metrics |
| 2 | Denmark | Equitable growth, robust institutions, forward‑looking social policy |
| 3 | Norway | Strong institutions and social progress |
| 4 | Singapore | Lowest legal and regulatory risk globally |
| 5 | Sweden | High resilience from social and institutional strength |
Bottom performers (rank 146‑150)
| Rank | Country | Main risk factors |
|---|---|---|
| 150 | Lebanon | Political instability, high legal/regulatory risk |
| 149 | Haiti | Political instability, high legal/regulatory risk |
| 148 | Pakistan | Political instability, high legal/regulatory risk |
| 147 | Nigeria | Political instability, high legal/regulatory risk |
| 146 | Sierra Leone | Political instability, high legal/regulatory risk |
These nations score low on governance, innovation and social development, limiting their adaptive capacity.
G7 economies
The G7 collectively balance relatively low risk with strong resilience. Rankings of note:
- Germany – 9th, driven by climate readiness, economic complexity and innovation.
- Canada – 11th, classified as very low risk due to subdued inflation, stable currency and limited physical climate risk.
- United Kingdom – 19th; France – 23rd; United States – 24th; Japan – 27th; Italy – 36th.
The G7’s performance underscores the importance of robust institutions and adaptive capacity for maintaining global economic influence.
BRICS and other emerging markets
- China – 37th, placed in the Favorable Outlook category; moderate risk offset by substantial resilience from investment capacity and innovation.
- Russia – 69th, classified as high resilience but also high risk, reflecting political instability and regulatory uncertainty (Cautious Potential band).
- South Africa – 95th; Brazil – 99th; India – 104th – all show moderate resilience weakened by elevated political, legal and regulatory risks, with India additionally exposed to physical climate hazards.
Small states with high resilience
Beyond the overall leaders, several smaller economies rank highly due to transparent governance, climate preparedness and sustainable policies:
- Luxembourg – 6th
- Finland – 7th
- Netherlands – 8th
- Germany – 9th (also a G7 member)
- Austria – 12th (social progress, climate resilience)
- Estonia – 13th; Czechia – 14th; Ireland – 15th – noted for robust governance and social progress.
- New Zealand – 16th – benchmark for governance and regulatory quality.
- South Korea – 20th – strong adaptive capacity through economic complexity and innovation.
Role of residence and citizenship programs
The index finds that countries with well‑structured residence or citizenship‑by‑investment schemes tend to rank higher in resilience. Program revenues can:
- Attract long‑term capital and entrepreneurial talent.
- Support education, infrastructure and fiscal stability.
Examples cited include Singapore’s Global Investor Program, Portugal’s Residence Program (which helped during its debt crisis), and programs in Malta and Mauritius.
Expert observations
- Dr. Christian H. Kaelin (Henley & Partners) – the index provides “unprecedented clarity” on sovereign risk and resilience for investors and global citizens.
- Dr. Parag Khanna (AlphaGeo) – high risk can be offset by strong resilience; adaptation is the new imperative for attracting investment and talent.
- Dr. Tim Klatte (Grant Thornton China) – resilience, not size or wealth, determines a nation’s ability to safeguard prosperity; governance and diversification are key defenses.
- Prof. Dr. Khalid Koser (GCERF) – the index offers a roadmap linking investment priorities to social and institutional resilience, emphasizing cross‑sector collaboration.
- Jacob Shapiro (Bespoke Group) – the index sharpens investor judgment by mapping risk and resilience, highlighting contradictions such as China’s elevated risk paired with high resilience.
The Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index is available on the Henley & Partners website, accompanied by detailed commentary and analysis.
Source article: www.henleyglobal.com
